![]() ![]() ![]() In just the last four years the number of active and defunct satellites in low Earth orbit has also doubled, from approximately 3,000 to more than 8,000. COVID-19 aside, the number of airline flights each year has doubled since the millennium. Today, two factors combine to increase the probability of an airplane being struck by space debris: increasing air traffic and increasing uses of space. In 2021, the AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine was linked to a very small risk of blood clots - a total of 222 cases among 34 million people, or 0.0007 per cent.Ī number of countries responded by curtailing and, in the case of the U.S., not licensing the use of AstraZeneca, thus favoring more expensive MRNA vaccines. (Zhang Liyun/Xinhua via AP, File)īut even very small probabilities can have severe consequences that justify regulatory action. Authorities warned of potential danger to aircraft and ships. People watch the Long March 5B Y3 carrier rocket lift off from the Wenchang Space Launch Center in southern China on July 24, 2022. The probability of an airplane being struck by space debris is extremely small - much smaller than a bird strike. Bird strikes were unlikely in these instances. In 2013, another Boeing 757 had one side of its nose-cone punched in by an unidentified object while flying at 26,000 feet. ![]() Although there are no confirmed instances of space debris hitting an aircraft in flight, in 1996 the windscreen of a Boeing 757 was cracked by an unknown object while flying at 31,500 feet. Nevertheless, why are aviation agencies being forced to make these decisions at all? No confirmed instancesĪn aircraft in flight could be seriously damaged by just 300 grams of space debris impacting an engine, windshield or other critical surface. Which approach was correct? Nobody likes delays, yet we all expect airlines and regulators to put safety first. More than 300 flights were disrupted by the Spanish airspace closure alone, costing airlines and passengers millions of Euros. The rocket body passed harmlessly overhead, before breaking up over the Pacific Ocean. 4, 2022, Spain and France closed parts of their airspace for 40 and 60 minutes respectively, as another Chinese Long March 5B rocket body was due to re-enter the atmosphere uncontrolled. In circumstances like these, decision-makers have to weigh the economic costs against taking no action but accepting a small probability of casualties. ![]()
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